455 W Kelso St Apt 225 · Tucson, AZ 85705

$105,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Condo, 2nd floor, spacious 1 bedroom and 1 full bath , prime end unit overlooking the relaxing pool & spa. Solid wood cabinetry, laminate wood floors, skylight in kitchen! Large bedroom, high ceilings. NEW water heater, HVAC 2019. Secure gated community in convenient central location. Perfect location for students & winter visitors. On site laundry room plus one assigned parking space. near the side street entry gate. Close to downtown, University of Arizona, Pima College, bus lines, Tucson Mall and Interstate 10. Community features: On site laundry room, pool/spa, community BBQ, and dog run area. HOA includes water, trash , insurance & landscaping maintenance. NEARBY: University of Arizona, mall, restaurants, shopping, bus lines, close to freeway & so much mor

Key facts

• Pool spa access
• Community pool
• Built 1983

Tags

• SECURE GATED COMMUNITY
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• HOA MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• POOL SPA ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property subtype: Condominium; Lot described as condo; Zoned Tucson - C2
• HOA & community: Association: Stratford; Monthly HOA fees; HOA covers blanket insurance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, gated community upkeep, sewer and water; Community pool and spa

Exterior

• Parking: HOA-managed road access
• Security: Gated community; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; Two levels; Faces north
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wrought iron fencing; Decorative gravel and shrubs; Previously developed lot; North/South exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Engineered wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Exhaust fan; Security gate (community)
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E C Nash School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 296 students, 94% FRL); La Cima Middle School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #155 of 218 statewide, top 71%, 421 students, 78% FRL); Amphitheater High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,163 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 24% district-wide (60 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,796 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-30,107
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-48,453
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $383/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA est. from 6 same-building comps: −$185
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $-173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $74,433

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
455 W Kelso St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	651	$750	$1.15	44d	3	0.02mi
2620 N 14th Ave Unit WI2620-5 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	360	$695	$1.93	23d	1	0.04mi
450 W Kelso St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	569	$890	$1.56	3d	4	0.07mi
297 W Kelso St Unit 12 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$695	$1.14	43d	1	0.24mi
2740 N Balboa Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$745	$1.24	2d	9	0.26mi
2460 N Balboa Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	600	$795	$1.32	23d	1	0.32mi
208 W Kelso St Unit Kelso 208-2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$650	$1.14	43d	1	0.33mi
201 W Kelso St Unit KEL211-12 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$725	$1.12	43d	1	0.33mi
201 W Kelso St Unit KEL201-5 Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	550	$650	$1.18	3d	1	0.33mi
204 W Kelso St Unit 4 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$825	$1.45	43d	1	0.34mi
510 W Sahuaro St Unit 1105 Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	360	$695	$1.93	23d	1	0.37mi
510 W Sahuaro St Unit 1106 Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	360	$695	$1.93	43d	1	0.37mi
240 W Sahuaro St Unit 16 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	450	$800	$1.78	1d	1	0.44mi
121 W Alturas St Unit C Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$699	$1.27	23d	1	0.45mi
522 W Rillito St Unit 11 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$750	$1.88	43d	1	0.46mi
2620 N Stone Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	506	$725	$1.43	23d	1	0.49mi
2620 N Stone Ave Unit TB2620-2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	506	$749	$1.48	43d	1	0.49mi
2632 N Stone Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	23d	1	0.49mi
2632 N Stone Ave Unit 4 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	450	$800	$1.78	43d	1	0.49mi
114 W Laguna St Unit 114-28 Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	400	$680	$1.70	20d	1	0.51mi
114 W Laguna St Unit 114-38 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	43d	1	0.51mi
114 W Laguna St Unit 114-01 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	615	$950	$1.54	14d	1	0.51mi
201 W Blacklidge Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	520	$949	$1.82	23d	1	0.52mi
504 W Flores St Unit CDR04 Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	450	$695	$1.54	23d	1	0.53mi
504 W Flores St Unit CDR11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	711	$925	$1.30	23d	1	0.53mi
210 W Blacklidge Dr Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	600	$1,075	$1.79	3d	1	0.54mi
212 W Blacklidge Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	21d	1	0.54mi
26 E Glenn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$1,095	$1.68	23d	1	0.55mi
302 W Flores St Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$619	$1.13	23d	1	0.56mi
3066 N Balboa Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$844	$1.53	23d	2	0.58mi
124 E Jacinto St Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$799	$1.33	23d	1	0.58mi
3028 N Castro Ave Unit 12 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	575	$699	$1.22	43d	1	0.60mi
3028 N Castro Ave Unit 16 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	575	$649	$1.13	23d	1	0.60mi
255 W Flores St Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	400	$900	$2.25	23d	1	0.61mi
10 W Rillito St Unit VE10-2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	470	$750	$1.60	3d	1	0.63mi
143 W Flores St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	690	$1,200	$1.74	43d	1	0.64mi
2959 N Estrella Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	440	$800	$1.82	43d	1	0.68mi
114 E Blacklidge Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	710	$650	$0.92	43d	1	0.69mi
219 W Fort Lowell Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	476	$850	$1.79	43d	2	0.70mi
2631 N Fontana Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	504	$775	$1.54	2d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpoolsecurityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$383
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$776
• − Management: −$776
• − HOA: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$3,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+52.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-19 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-10-17 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-10-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-30 Listed $94,900 MLSSAZ
• 2020-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $57,550 Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (MLS) $57,550 MLSSAZ
• 2020-07-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2020-06-23 Listed $59,900 MLSSAZ
• 2008-02-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-09-28 Listed $76,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $383 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.