540 County Road 2906

Bonham, TX 75438

$160,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Active · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-136/mo
• Annual: $-1,626/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#785 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bonham ISD (town): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Finley-Oates El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 533 students, 73% FRL); Evans El (math 41% / reading 33%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 374 students, 69% FRL); Bonham H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Bonham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.