540 County Road 2906 · Bonham, TX 75438

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 188 Days on market

Built 2012 1.00 ac lot Est $136k · 17% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sitting on a full acre, this updated home blends modern style with peaceful country living. The open-concept layout welcomes you with new floors, kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and new fixtures throughout. The primary suite features a newly tiled shower, and the home includes a new roof and gravel driveway for added peace of mind. A new front deck enhances the curb appeal and offers a great space for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Lake Bonham, Bonham State Park, local shopping, and dining in Downtown Bonham, you’ll have plenty to explore. Easy access to Highway 82 keeps your commute simple while offering the quiet, rural setting you’ve been looking for.

Key facts

• New floors
• Quartz countertops
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NEW FLOORS
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Bonham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#785 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bonham ISD (town): math 37% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Finley-Oates El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 533 students, 73% FRL); Evans El (math 41% / reading 33%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 374 students, 69% FRL); Bonham H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,449 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,192
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1685 County Road 2925	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-1%)	12mo	$135,000	$112	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $28,533
• Equity at exit: $91,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $93,549
• Equity at exit: $157,337

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75438

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,512/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $136,063

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-90	+0% $-136	+5% $-181	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-180	+0% $-136	+5% $-91	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-95	base $-136	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 166 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    price $160,000 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Sitting on a full acre, this updated home blends modern style with peaceful country living. The open-concept layout welcomes you with new floors, kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and new fixtures throughout. The primary suite features a newly tiled shower, and the home includes a new roof and gravel driveway for added peace of mind. A new front deck enhances the curb appeal and offers a great space for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Lake Bonham, Bonham State Park, local shopping, and dining in Downtown Bonham, you’ll have plenty to explore. Easy access to Highway 82 keeps your commute simple while offering the quiet, rural setting you’ve been looking for.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $170,000 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Sitting on a full acre, this updated home blends modern style with peaceful country living. The open-concept layout welcomes you with new floors, kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and new fixtures throughout. The primary suite features a newly tiled shower, and the home includes a new roof and gravel driveway for added peace of mind. A new front deck enhances the curb appeal and offers a great space for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Lake Bonham, Bonham State Park, local shopping, and dining in Downtown Bonham, you’ll have plenty to explore. Easy access to Highway 82 keeps your commute simple while offering the quiet, rural setting you’ve been looking for.

20. 2026-02-09
    price $180,000 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Sitting on a full acre, this updated home blends modern style with peaceful country living. The open-concept layout welcomes you with new floors, kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and new fixtures throughout. The primary suite features a newly tiled shower, and the home includes a new roof and gravel driveway for added peace of mind. A new front deck enhances the curb appeal and offers a great space for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Lake Bonham, Bonham State Park, local shopping, and dining in Downtown Bonham, you’ll have plenty to explore. Easy access to Highway 82 keeps your commute simple while offering the quiet, rural setting you’ve been looking for.

21. 2025-12-15
    listed $190,000 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Sitting on a full acre, this updated home blends modern style with peaceful country living. The open-concept layout welcomes you with new floors, kitchen cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and new fixtures throughout. The primary suite features a newly tiled shower, and the home includes a new roof and gravel driveway for added peace of mind. A new front deck enhances the curb appeal and offers a great space for relaxing or entertaining. Located just minutes from Lake Bonham, Bonham State Park, local shopping, and dining in Downtown Bonham, you’ll have plenty to explore. Easy access to Highway 82 keeps your commute simple while offering the quiet, rural setting you’ve been looking for.

22. 2025-09-04
    soldstatus
23. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus Sold 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Singlewide mobile home on beautiful lot with very large mature trees providing ample shade for outdoor activities. Home was manufactured in 2012 and needs minor cosmetic repair but has great potential for a handyman or investor.

24. 2020-11-27
    status Pending 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Singlewide mobile home on beautiful lot with very large mature trees providing ample shade for outdoor activities. Home was manufactured in 2012 and needs minor cosmetic repair but has great potential for a handyman or investor.

25. 2020-11-18
    historical Active Option Contract 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Singlewide mobile home on beautiful lot with very large mature trees providing ample shade for outdoor activities. Home was manufactured in 2012 and needs minor cosmetic repair but has great potential for a handyman or investor.

26. 2020-11-03
    listed $70,000 Active 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Singlewide mobile home on beautiful lot with very large mature trees providing ample shade for outdoor activities. Home was manufactured in 2012 and needs minor cosmetic repair but has great potential for a handyman or investor.

27. 2013-06-20
    soldstatus
28. 2007-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,416/yr (+$118/mo · 93.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,512
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $-548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bonham ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810800
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5937
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bonham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #14360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,155
• Population (ZIP): 1,279

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Current HPI: 287.5793
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-11-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-11-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-11-03 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2013-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,512 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.