13788 Brethren Heights Rd

Brethren, MI 49619

$63,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$335
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $414/mo
• Annual: $4,972/yr
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.79%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $17,892

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($442 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#647 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kaleva Norman Dickson School District (rural): math 18% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #423 of 540 in MI (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Manistee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manistee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.