13788 Brethren Heights Rd · Brethren, MI 49619

$63,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 1950 0.90 ac lot Est $65k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

Key facts

• 0.9 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 46 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#647 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kaleva Norman Dickson School District (rural): math 18% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #423 of 540 in MI (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Manistee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($442 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Manistee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,983 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.79%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,896
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13788 Brethren Heights Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	832 (0%)	0mo	$65,000	$78	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $61,170
• Equity at exit: $57,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $159,346
• Equity at exit: $124,144

Cash invested: $17,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49619

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$335
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $487

Max offer price $63,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $432	+0% $414	+5% $396	+10% $378
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $374	+0% $414	+5% $454	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $431	base $414	+0.5pp $398	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,975
• Closing costs: $1,917
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

2. 2026-03-10
   status Pending 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

3. 2026-03-10
   status Pending 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

4. 2026-02-28
   price $63,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

5. 2026-02-28
   price $63,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

6. 2026-02-28
   price $63,900

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

7. 2026-01-21
   listed $75,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

8. 2026-01-21
   listed $75,000 Active 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

9. 2026-01-21
   listed $75,000 Active 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   RANCH LOCATED IN A SMALL TOWN, THIS IS THE PERFECT GETAWAY HOME FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME PRIVACY HOME IS IN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. 2 BEDROOMS AND 1 FULL BATH

10. 2025-04-17
    soldstatus $90,000
11. 2022-12-01
    soldstatus $94,900
12. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus $94,900 Sold
13. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus $94,900 Sold
14. 2022-10-04
    listed $99,900
15. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus $27,500
16. 2022-06-02
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
17. 2022-06-02
    historical Active Backup
18. 2022-05-24
    price $99,900
19. 2022-05-24
    price $99,900
20. 2022-05-17
    price $127,900
21. 2022-05-17
    price $127,900
22. 2022-05-06
    status Active
23. 2022-05-06
    status Active
24. 2022-05-03
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
25. 2022-05-02
    historical Active Contingent
26. 2022-04-24
    listed $129,900 Active
27. 2022-04-24
    listed $129,900 Active
28. 2022-04-24
    listed $99,900
29. 2008-09-25
    soldstatus $24,900
30. 2008-09-17
    soldstatus $24,900
31. 2008-09-17
    soldstatus $24,900
32. 2008-02-06
    listed $26,900
33. 2008-02-06
    listed $26,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $631 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 126.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,579
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$1,859
• Taxable income: $4,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$999
• After-tax cash flow: $3,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kaleva Norman Dickson School District
• NCES district ID: 2620010
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,530
• Composite: 21.54/100
• National rank: #8314
• State rank: #423 of 540 in MI

Livability — Brethren

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #647
• US rank: #22018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brethren, MI
• Population (ZIP): 1,054

Population outlook (Manistee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,785 people
• By 2030: 23,227 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 21,795 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 18,833 · -20.8%
• By 2100: 15,491 · -34.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Native American 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 7% Lithuanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Manistee

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.2% · R 57.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+5.9 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.14%
• Current HPI: 319.9642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+137.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $63,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $63,900 WWMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $63,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-21 Listed $75,000 WWMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2022-10-04 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-04 Sold (MLS) $94,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (MLS) $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-02 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-06-02 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-05-24 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-05-24 Price Changed $99,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-05-17 Price Changed $127,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-05-17 Price Changed $127,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-05-06 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-05-06 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-05-03 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-05-02 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-04-24 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-24 Listed $129,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-04-24 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records
• 2008-09-17 Sold (MLS) $24,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2008-09-17 Sold (MLS) $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-02-06 Listed $26,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2008-02-06 Listed $26,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $278 · -66.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.