Declaration Plan

Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$261,740F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,807 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 406 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax + insurance: −$470
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,096/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $78,930

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,245/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.