Declaration Plan · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$261,740

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,807 sqft · Townhouse · 406 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large owner's suite
• Covered patio
• Two car garage

Tags

• TWO CAR GARAGE
• CONTEMPORARY OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• LARGE OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $254,240

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Declaration); Address: Zephyrhills, FL 33541
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1807 (value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model named Declaration; Active new construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $261,740 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,892.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,245/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,483 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,892
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3481 Lapis Lake Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,807 (0%)	11mo	$284,000	$157	90
3361 Lapis Lk	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,807 (0%)	7mo	$278,750	$154	90
3465 Lapis Lake Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-3%)	10mo	$259,300	$147	87
3477 Lapis Lake Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-3%)	10mo	$249,900	$142	86
3473 Lapis Lake Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-12%)	11mo	$249,100	$156	71
3469 Lapis Lake Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-12%)	12mo	$252,000	$158	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-63,349
• Equity at exit: $42,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-94,775
• Equity at exit: $24,373

Cash invested: $78,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,228/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $256,616

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-77	+0% $-175	+5% $-272	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-263	+0% $-175	+5% $-86	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-103	base $-175	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,473
• Closing costs: $8,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3346 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,975	$1.12	0d	1	0.15mi
3328 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$1,999	$1.25	11d	1	0.17mi
4235 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	12d	1	0.78mi
35759 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,400	$1.52	12d	1	0.87mi
35541 Kinsey Pt Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,675	$1.16	25d	1	0.95mi
36100 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,395	$1.51	18d	1	0.99mi
36171 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,450	$1.57	12d	1	1.05mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	25d	1	1.36mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	25d	1	1.38mi
35077 Ackley Trce Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	18d	1	1.38mi
35029 Brackett Bnd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	12d	1	1.44mi
37327 Sagemoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,600	$1.17	25d	1	1.49mi
37329 Sagemoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,600	$1.04	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,740 Active 406 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,740 Active 405 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,740 Active 404 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $261,740 Active 403 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,240 Active 403 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $261,240 Active 401 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,240 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,240 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,240 Active 395 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,240 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,240 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $260,240 Active 390 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,240 Active 389 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,240 Active 388 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,228
• − Insurance: −$1,409
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$8,200
• Taxable loss: −$7,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B