15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #219

Garnet, CA 92240

$59,995C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,647/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$850
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-269/yr
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 2.74%
• Cash to close: $16,799

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-269/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $56k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 52% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 519 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.8% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?