15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #219 · Garnet, CA 92240

$59,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1977 58 ac lot $91/sqft · 22% above area Est $49k · 22% over $850/mo HOA · 51% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the peace and tranquility of resort-style living at Hidden Springs Country Club! This charming, well-maintained home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in a vibrant 55+ community designed for both relaxation and recreation. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your spacious enclosed sunroom, and stay comfortable year-round with three energy-efficient mini-split A/C units. Beyond your front door, the community offers an impressive list of amenities, including a 9-hole par 3 golf course, sparkling swimming pool, modern workout facility, tennis and pickleball courts, two spas, a sauna, a recreation room, and even a dog park for your four-legged friends. Whether you're seeking an active lifestyle or a quiet desert retreat, Hidden Springs has it all. Don't miss your chance to be part of this exceptional community. Park approval is required for residency.

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Two spas
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• MODERN WORKOUT FACILITY
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TWO SPAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-212/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $57k (5.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.8% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 519 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 51% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,795 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,340
• List price: $59,995
• Delta: 21.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd Rd #268	0.13mi	2/1.0	650 (-2%)	11mo	$64,900	$100	78
15500 Bubbling Wls #210	0.13mi	2/1.0	720 (+9%)	3mo	$34,500	$48	72
15500 Bubbling Wells Road Rd #6	0.12mi	2/1.0	728 (+10%)	11mo	$18,000	$25	64
16400 Bubbling Wells Rd #483	0.55mi	1/1.0 (-1)	650 (-2%)	0mo	$43,680	$67	62
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #216	0.02mi	2/2.0	744 (+13%)	21mo	$35,000	$47	60
16400 Bubbling Wls #268	0.55mi	1/1.0 (-1)	647 (-2%)	3mo	$55,000	$85	60
16400 Bubbling Wells Rd #69	0.23mi	2/1.0	565 (-14%)	6mo	$64,000	$113	56
16400 Bubbling Wls #106	0.56mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (-9%)	22mo	$55,090	$92	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-9,158
• Equity at exit: $8,945

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-2,459
• Equity at exit: $5,187

Cash invested: $16,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 519
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $135/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$850
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $56,877

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-1	+0% $-18	+5% $-35	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-83	+0% $-18	+5% $48	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-2	base $-18	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,999
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15160 Via Montana Unit 3 Desert Hot Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,600	$3.20	44d	1	0.71mi
15935 Mary Cir Desert Hot Springs, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,350	$2.45	19d	1	1.21mi
13079 Eliseo Rd Apt 4 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	648	$1,500	$2.31	22d	1	1.28mi
13079 Eliseo Rd Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	648	$1,495	$2.31	22d	1	1.28mi
13848 Scenic Crest Cir Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	25d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $850 · $10,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $59,995 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,995 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,995 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,995 Active 363 DOM
5. 2025-10-04
   price $59,995 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Experience the peace and tranquility of resort-style living at Hidden Springs Country Club! This charming, well-maintained home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in a vibrant 55+ community designed for both relaxation and recreation. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your spacious enclosed sunroom, and stay comfortable year-round with three energy-efficient mini-split A/C units. Beyond your front door, the community offers an impressive list of amenities, including a 9-hole par 3 golf course, sparkling swimming pool, modern workout facility, tennis and pickleball courts, two spas, a sauna, a recreation room, and even a dog park for your four-legged friends. Whether you're seeking an active lifestyle or a quiet desert retreat, Hidden Springs has it all. Don't miss your chance to be part of this exceptional community. Park approval is required for residency.

6. 2025-06-02
   listed $79,995 Active 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Experience the peace and tranquility of resort-style living at Hidden Springs Country Club! This charming, well-maintained home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in a vibrant 55+ community designed for both relaxation and recreation. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your spacious enclosed sunroom, and stay comfortable year-round with three energy-efficient mini-split A/C units. Beyond your front door, the community offers an impressive list of amenities, including a 9-hole par 3 golf course, sparkling swimming pool, modern workout facility, tennis and pickleball courts, two spas, a sauna, a recreation room, and even a dog park for your four-legged friends. Whether you're seeking an active lifestyle or a quiet desert retreat, Hidden Springs has it all. Don't miss your chance to be part of this exceptional community. Park approval is required for residency.

7. 2022-12-30
   soldstatus $50,000 Sold 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Come and enjoy the peace and tranquility of resort style living in Hidden Springs Country Club. This well maintained unit is not only warm and cozy but also affords you the convenience of retirement living all while having all the amenities for an active lifestyle! With a view of the mountains and the freedom of desert living you have the best of both worlds. Enjoy the mountain views from your good size enclosed sunroom. The home has three mini-splits A/C units to cool you in the summer heat. This wonderful senior community has an amazing 9 hole golf course, a large swimming pool, 2 spas, a sauna, tennis courts, a recreation room and a dog park for your four legged family members. Don't let this one slip away! Park approval required for residency.

8. 2022-12-05
   historical Backup Offers Accepted 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Come and enjoy the peace and tranquility of resort style living in Hidden Springs Country Club. This well maintained unit is not only warm and cozy but also affords you the convenience of retirement living all while having all the amenities for an active lifestyle! With a view of the mountains and the freedom of desert living you have the best of both worlds. Enjoy the mountain views from your good size enclosed sunroom. The home has three mini-splits A/C units to cool you in the summer heat. This wonderful senior community has an amazing 9 hole golf course, a large swimming pool, 2 spas, a sauna, tennis courts, a recreation room and a dog park for your four legged family members. Don't let this one slip away! Park approval required for residency.

9. 2022-11-15
   price $59,900 757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (757 chars)

   Come and enjoy the peace and tranquility of resort style living in Hidden Springs Country Club. This well maintained unit is not only warm and cozy but also affords you the convenience of retirement living all while having all the amenities for an active lifestyle! With a view of the mountains and the freedom of desert living you have the best of both worlds. Enjoy the mountain views from your good size enclosed sunroom. The home has three mini-splits A/C units to cool you in the summer heat. This wonderful senior community has an amazing 9 hole golf course, a large swimming pool, 2 spas, a sauna, tennis courts, a recreation room and a dog park for your four legged family members. Don't let this one slip away! Park approval required for residency.

10. 2022-09-13
    listed $67,900 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Come and enjoy the peace and tranquility of resort style living in Hidden Springs Country Club. This well maintained unit is not only warm and cozy but also affords you the convenience of retirement living all while having all the amenities for an active lifestyle! With a view of the mountains and the freedom of desert living you have the best of both worlds. Enjoy the mountain views from your good size enclosed sunroom. The home has three mini-splits A/C units to cool you in the summer heat. This wonderful senior community has an amazing 9 hole golf course, a large swimming pool, 2 spas, a sauna, tennis courts, a recreation room and a dog park for your four legged family members. Don't let this one slip away! Park approval required for residency.

11. 2021-10-30
    status Pending
12. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus $50,000 Sold
13. 2021-05-08
    price $67,500
14. 2021-04-23
    price $55,900
15. 2021-04-20
    price $53,600
16. 2021-02-26
    price $49,500
17. 2021-02-03
    price $48,500
18. 2020-12-16
    price $46,500
19. 2020-08-14
    price $43,500
20. 2020-07-08
    price $39,500
21. 2020-07-08
    listed $39,500 Active
22. 2020-07-08
    historical
23. 2020-04-18
    price $32,000
24. 2020-03-18
    price $35,000
25. 2020-02-12
    price $37,900
26. 2020-02-08
    price $39,900
27. 2020-01-17
    listed $42,500 Active
28. 2019-10-30
    historical
29. 2019-08-31
    listed $9,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $135 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 237.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥111°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$135
• − Insurance: −$1,767
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − HOA: −$10,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable loss: −$551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$132
• After-tax cash flow: $-80/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garnet

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #24574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garnet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+566.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $59,995 GPSMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $79,995 GPSMLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 TheMLS
• 2022-12-05 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $59,900 TheMLS
• 2022-09-13 Listed $67,900 TheMLS
• 2021-10-30 Pending — TheMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (MLS) $50,000 TheMLS
• 2021-05-08 Price Changed $67,500 TheMLS
• 2021-04-23 Price Changed $55,900 TheMLS
• 2021-04-20 Price Changed $53,600 TheMLS
• 2021-02-26 Price Changed $49,500 TheMLS
• 2021-02-03 Price Changed $48,500 TheMLS
• 2020-12-16 Price Changed $46,500 TheMLS
• 2020-08-14 Price Changed $43,500 TheMLS
• 2020-07-08 Price Changed $39,500 GPSMLS
• 2020-07-08 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2020-07-08 Listed $39,500 TheMLS
• 2020-04-18 Price Changed $32,000 GPSMLS
• 2020-03-18 Price Changed $35,000 GPSMLS
• 2020-02-12 Price Changed $37,900 GPSMLS
• 2020-02-08 Price Changed $39,900 GPSMLS
• 2020-01-17 Listed $42,500 GPSMLS
• 2019-10-30 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $9,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $135 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.