12 Road 6264

Kirtland, NM 87417

$64,888B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $561/mo
• Annual: $6,727/yr
• Cap rate: 16.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.03%
• DSCR: 2.65
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $18,169

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#32 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central Consolidated Schools (rural): math 8% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 29 in NM (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kirtland Elementary (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #55 of 68 statewide, top 82%, 396 students, 100% FRL); Kirtland Middle (430 students, 100% FRL); Kirtland Central High (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 110 statewide, top 74%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.