12 Road 6264 · Kirtland, NM 87417

$64,888

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · Other · 120 Days on market

Built 1974 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

49,888 is for TRAILER ONLY !!! 69888 is for trailer and Land Must see !! This home has had a major face lift! Newer plumbing, water/drains, updated electric and fixtures, new paint, new flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, new vanity , new toilet , new shower, new metal skirting, new water heater, repairs on heater, new sink faucets, and more! Owner carry REC !! 20k down Owner can keep lot and rent will rent lot for 350.per month . Trailer must stay on This lot until trailer paid for in full! * Trailer and Lot both can be purchased for $69,888 BROKER OWNED

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New shower
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELEC
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#32 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central Consolidated Schools (rural): math 8% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 29 in NM (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kirtland Elementary (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #55 of 68 statewide, top 82%, 396 students, 100% FRL); Kirtland Middle (430 students, 100% FRL); Kirtland Central High (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 110 statewide, top 74%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,048 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.03%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $47,514
• Equity at exit: $33,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $114,364
• Equity at exit: $55,150

Cash invested: $18,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87417

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $170/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $483

Max offer price $64,888

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $597	-5% $579	+0% $561	+5% $542	+10% $524
Rent	-10% $466	-5% $514	+0% $561	+5% $608	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $593	-0.5pp $577	base $561	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,222
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,888 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,888 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,888 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $64,888 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $64,888 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 361-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $64,888 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $64,888 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $64,888 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $64,888 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-04-29
    price $49,888 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    49,888 is for TRAILER ONLY !!! 69888 is for trailer and Land Must see !! This home has had a major face lift! Newer plumbing, water/drains, updated electric and fixtures, new paint, new flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, new vanity , new toilet , new shower, new metal skirting, new water heater, repairs on heater, new sink faucets, and more! Owner carry REC !! 20k down Owner can keep lot and rent will rent lot for 350.per month . Trailer must stay on This lot until trailer paid for in full! * Trailer and Lot both can be purchased for $69,888 BROKER OWNED

12. 2026-03-31
    price $79,888 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    49,888 is for TRAILER ONLY !!! 69888 is for trailer and Land Must see !! This home has had a major face lift! Newer plumbing, water/drains, updated electric and fixtures, new paint, new flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, new vanity , new toilet , new shower, new metal skirting, new water heater, repairs on heater, new sink faucets, and more! Owner carry REC !! 20k down Owner can keep lot and rent will rent lot for 350.per month . Trailer must stay on This lot until trailer paid for in full! * Trailer and Lot both can be purchased for $69,888 BROKER OWNED

13. 2026-03-17
    price $84,888 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    49,888 is for TRAILER ONLY !!! 69888 is for trailer and Land Must see !! This home has had a major face lift! Newer plumbing, water/drains, updated electric and fixtures, new paint, new flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, new vanity , new toilet , new shower, new metal skirting, new water heater, repairs on heater, new sink faucets, and more! Owner carry REC !! 20k down Owner can keep lot and rent will rent lot for 350.per month . Trailer must stay on This lot until trailer paid for in full! * Trailer and Lot both can be purchased for $69,888 BROKER OWNED

14. 2026-02-09
    listed $89,888 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    49,888 is for TRAILER ONLY !!! 69888 is for trailer and Land Must see !! This home has had a major face lift! Newer plumbing, water/drains, updated electric and fixtures, new paint, new flooring, new cabinets, new appliances, new vanity , new toilet , new shower, new metal skirting, new water heater, repairs on heater, new sink faucets, and more! Owner carry REC !! 20k down Owner can keep lot and rent will rent lot for 350.per month . Trailer must stay on This lot until trailer paid for in full! * Trailer and Lot both can be purchased for $69,888 BROKER OWNED

15. 2025-05-19
    soldstatus Closed 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

16. 2025-05-08
    status Pending 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

17. 2025-04-21
    price $70,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

18. 2025-04-14
    price $75,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

19. 2025-04-14
    price $78,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

20. 2025-03-17
    price $119,888 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

21. 2025-03-17
    listed $19,888 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Mobile home and lot home has had a major remodel. New paint in and out, all new carpet and hard flooring, new custom made kitchen cabinets and counters. New refrigerator and gas stove. Updated electric and plumbing, all new metal skirting, new front porch and awning. Heater updated and new vents. New water heater, new light fixtures, new sinks, faucets, toilet and lots more. Medallion updating and repairing septic now. will not do REC at this price Broker owned.

22. 2025-03-04
    price $99,888
23. 2025-02-19
    price $104,888
24. 2025-01-31
    price $109,888
25. 2024-11-25
    price $139,000
26. 2024-09-13
    price $129,000
27. 2024-08-14
    price $49,888

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $170 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $519 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 206.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$170
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $6,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $5,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500390
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,722
• Composite: 20.65/100
• National rank: #8542
• State rank: #26 of 29 in NM

Livability — Kirtland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #11261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.87)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 55% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.14%
• Current HPI: 140.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $49,888 SJCMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $79,888 SJCMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $84,888 SJCMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $89,888 SJCMLS
• 2025-05-19 Sold (MLS) — SJCMLS
• 2025-05-08 Pending — SJCMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $70,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $75,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $78,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $119,888 SJCMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $19,888 SJCMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $99,888 SJCMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $104,888 SJCMLS
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $109,888 SJCMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $139,000 SJCMLS
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $129,000 SJCMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $49,888 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $170 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.