2134 Derby Dr

Seagoville, TX 75159

$289,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$56
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-373/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $81,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seagoville North El (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 767 students, 90% FRL); Seagoville Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 1,419 students, 88% FRL); Seagoville H S (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,779 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in Seagoville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.