2134 Derby Dr · Seagoville, TX 75159

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,600 sqft lot $160/sqft · 5% below area Est $306k · 5% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21243055 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Jul 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

Key facts

• 5,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in Seagoville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seagoville North El (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 767 students, 90% FRL); Seagoville Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 1,419 students, 88% FRL); Seagoville H S (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,779 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,837 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,700
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -5.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2226 Mustang Way	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$307,949	$168	88
2222 Horseshoe Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-2%)	0mo	$308,400	$174	87
2218 Horseshoe Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (+10%)	0mo	$300,990	$152	75
1868 Gallop Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (-10%)	1mo	$280,990	$173	71
2022 Colt Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$302,949	$165	71
2014 Colt Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$306,449	$167	70
2820 Jordan Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,758 (-3%)	0mo	$274,900	$156	67
15127 Benjamin Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,080 (+15%)	1mo	$305,000	$147	58
2012 Carriage Ct	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+14%)	1mo	$309,820	$150	53
2016 Colt Ct	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+14%)	0mo	$325,720	$158	50
2010 Colt Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+14%)	1mo	$339,820	$165	49
1253 Ponchartrain Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,062 (+14%)	0mo	$314,999	$153	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-56,422
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,468
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75159

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $285,498

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $69	+0% $-31	+5% $-131	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-132	+0% $-31	+5% $70	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $43	base $-31	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1928 Laurel Park Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1889	$2,450	$1.30	0d	1	0.15mi
15133 Ace Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2079	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.29mi
15127 Athena Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,400	$1.49	0d	1	0.34mi
1131 Elijah Way Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	22d	1	0.36mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	13d	1	0.49mi
2516 Tahoe Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	3.0	2087	$2,550	$1.22	0d	1	0.49mi
2603 Hutchins Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,975	$1.03	45d	1	0.52mi
2708 Corbo Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,400	$1.15	22d	1	0.54mi
15008 Baikal Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2524	$2,700	$1.07	45d	1	0.58mi
2820 Jordan Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,950	$1.11	0d	1	0.59mi
2806 Balleywood Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,195	$1.19	4d	1	0.67mi
1249 Eagle Mountain Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,750	$1.51	0d	1	0.71mi
2905 Englenook Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,149	$1.01	45d	1	0.73mi
1428 Victoria St Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2203	$3,695	$1.68	45d	1	0.79mi
2903 Castlebend Dr Seagoville, TX	5.0	2.5	2566	$2,450	$0.95	19d	1	0.88mi
639 Arlington Park Ct Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,299	$1.15	24d	1	1.20mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,349	$1.06	21d	1	1.22mi
752 Saratoga Ln Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,349	$1.06	19d	1	1.22mi
2033 Hialeah Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,680	$1.21	9d	1	1.23mi
2030 Delta Downs Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,185	$0.99	9d	1	1.25mi
1933 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,189	$0.99	4d	1	1.29mi
1921 Belmont Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,995	$1.13	9d	1	1.31mi
620 Fountain Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,300	$0.89	22d	1	1.34mi
612 Aqueduct Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,095	$1.04	45d	1	1.43mi
1630 Emily Ln Seagoville, TX	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,849	$1.20	9d	1	1.45mi
1914 Madison Dr Seagoville, TX	4.0	2.5	2587	$2,399	$0.93	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $289,990 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,990 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-04-17
   listed $289,990 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   MLS# 21243055 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Jul 2026 completion! ~ The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

5. 2026-04-16
   listed $289,990 Active 392-char remark

   Show marketing remark (392 chars)

   The Harper is designed for those who need extra space and versatility. This four bedroom, two bathroom home features an expansive living area, flowing seamlessly into a modern kitchen with a large island - perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is a peaceful retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or a creative space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,466
• − Management: −$2,466
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves functionality and style for potential buyers
• Resale Primary bath vanity — Enhances the primary bathroom for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves functionality and style for potential buyers ↑
• Resale Primary bath vanity — Enhances the primary bathroom for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seagoville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seagoville, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 23,456
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,456
• Household income: $72,897
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 32% Two or more races 20% Black 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.45%
• Current HPI: 321.2065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $289,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $289,990 Zillow