4760 Nolin Dam Rd

Brownsville, KY 42259

$125,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-658/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-658/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (29.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $88k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#234 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Edmonson County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #53 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kyrock Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #35 of 676 statewide, top 6%, 299 students, 54% FRL); Edmonson County Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 280 students, 48% FRL); Edmonson County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 592 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP.
• Edmonson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.