3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
971 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 63 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,981/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$336
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$416
Net cashflow
$-29/mo
Annual
$-350/yr
Cap rate
6.15%
Cash-on-cash
-0.52%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-350/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (2.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.4% below list).
It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $198k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#267 in FL, #4,332 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, employment D-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: High Point Elementary School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 609 students, 80% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.1%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $26k; list at $240k implies a 823% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8WP7DR9NZ46G7G
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29