441 Tremont St

Chula Vista, CA 91911

$1,900,000D

14 bd · 7.0 ba · 6,389 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,964
• Tax + insurance: −$3,167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,637
• Net cashflow: $552/mo
• Annual: $6,618/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $532,000

Investor read

• This is a 7 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.90M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $79/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.73M (8.8% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.73M (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery (John J.) Elementary (315 students, 90% FRL); Castle Park Middle (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #252 of 498 statewide, top 51%, 724 students, 80% FRL); Castle Park Senior High (math 30% / reading 56%, grade F, #460 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,433 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 53% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.34M; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $17,319/mo this rent would consume 252% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 3751% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: stucco siding — slight discoloration
• Minor: concrete steps — wear on treads
• Minor: kitchen cabinets — slight wear