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Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$269,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,736/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-245/mo
• Annual: $-2,941/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $75,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (35.6% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $270k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.