None · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$269,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1960 0.40 ac lot Est $290k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors or great rental property. This is a great area located across from the popular Deerpoint lake. This home is located in a nice area with a large yard and has a lot of potential. Please verify all information.

Key facts

• Custom en-suites
• Waterfall showers
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• CUSTOM EN-SUITES
• WATERFALL SHOWERS
• TILE FLOORING
• TONGUE-AND-GROOVE CEILINGS
• DEDICATED END CABINET PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story property; Zoned for single-family residence
• Construction: Block construction; Vinyl siding; Composition/flat/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Partial privacy fencing; Paved lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level (each about 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Insulated doors; Accessible full bath; Accessible bedroom; Accessible common area; Accessible closets; Accessible electrical and environmental controls; Accessible central living area; Accessible doors; Accessible entrance
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $270k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,588 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,652
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7425 Resota Ln	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,276 (0%)	1mo	$269,500	$211	93
3159 Rachel Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+1%)	20mo	$294,050	$227	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $114,266
• Equity at exit: $224,938

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $344,997
• Equity at exit: $467,268

Cash invested: $75,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,090/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $226,212

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-92	-5% $-169	+0% $-245	+5% $-321	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-314	+0% $-245	+5% $-176	+10% $-108
Rate	-1.0pp $-109	-0.5pp $-177	base $-245	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,375
• Closing costs: $8,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $269,500
3. 2026-02-13
   listed $299,900 Active
4. 2021-11-02
   soldstatus $85,000
5. 2021-11-01
   soldstatus $85,000 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Investors or great rental property. This is a great area located across from the popular Deerpoint lake. This home is located in a nice area with a large yard and has a lot of potential. Please verify all information.

6. 2021-09-23
   listed $99,000 217-char remark

   Show marketing remark (217 chars)

   Investors or great rental property. This is a great area located across from the popular Deerpoint lake. This home is located in a nice area with a large yard and has a lot of potential. Please verify all information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,147/yr (+$96/mo · 105.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,096
• − Property taxes: −$1,090
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$7,840
• Taxable loss: −$7,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+172.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $269,500 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $299,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $99,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,090 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.