815 W 5th St

Ogallala, NE 69153

$185,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $544/mo
• Annual: $6,524/yr
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.59%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ogallala Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #78 of 111 in NE (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Keith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Keith County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $185k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.