815 W 5th St · Ogallala, NE 69153

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $158k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

AVAILABLE 3/17/2026. LOOKING FOR COZY WITH A SIDE OF "EXTRA"? THIS 4 BEDROOM, 1.75 BATH HOME COMES WITH 1872 TOTAL SQ FOOTAGE. NOW FOR THE BONUS YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU NEEDED: 30 X40 SHOP (NEW IN 2024!) WITH TWO OVERHEAD DOORS IS A TOTAL GAME CHANGER. TOYS, TOOLS, SIDE HUSTLE, PROJECTS, STORAGE. .. .YOU NAME IT! ALL ELECTRIC. COMFORTABLE. FUNCTIONAL. THE KIND OF PLACE WHERE MORNINGS ARE QUIET AND EVENINGS FEEL EASY. CONTINGENT ON FINDING SUITABLE HOUSING.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ogallala Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #78 of 111 in NE (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Keith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Keith County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $185k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.59%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,612
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 W 5th St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+8%)	1mo	$170,000	$91	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $135,327
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $371,178
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69153

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $185,000 Active
3. 2026-02-25
   historical $185,000
4. 2016-04-11
   soldstatus $72,000
5. 2003-09-30
   soldstatus $83,000
6. 1998-06-05
   soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,200 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,122/yr (+$177/mo · 196.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $3,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$887
• After-tax cash flow: $5,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogallala Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3174760
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,347
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3934
• State rank: #78 of 111 in NE

Livability — Ogallala

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #7929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogallala, NE
• Population (ZIP): 5,968

Population outlook (Keith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,706 people
• By 2030: 7,508 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 7,139 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 6,916 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 6,810 · -11.6%
• By 2100: 6,635 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Keith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.4% · R 81.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.15%
• Current HPI: 321.546
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — LCBR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $185,000 LCBR
• 2026-02-25 Coming Soon $185,000 LCBR
• 2016-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,079 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.