Still the One Plan

New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$83,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 346 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $777/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $-687/mo
• Annual: $-8,250/yr
• Cap rate: -0.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.42%
• DSCR: -0.13
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $32,452

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $16k (80.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $16k (80.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 64% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 959 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.8% vs local median 4.4% in New Kingman-Butler — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 80% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.