Still the One Plan · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$83,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 298 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition $500/mo HOA · 50% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Cash flow +0.3/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.0

Listing remarks MLS

Chose your lot at Kingman Ranch for this beautiful split floor plan!

Key facts

• Listed 297 days

🏗️ New construction. The $83,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $115,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $42k (49.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (49.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 4.6% in New Kingman-Butler — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 819 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,739 (49.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.95%
• DSCR: 0.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,900
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: -28.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1180 E Jagerson Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0	931 (+11%)	23mo	$106,000	$114	56
1200 E Potter Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0	938 (+12%)	8mo	$105,000	$112	53
4954 Scotty Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	16mo	$116,000	$126	52
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.45mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	8mo	$147,000	$153	49
2110 E Packard Ave	0.74mi	2/1.5	937 (+12%)	1mo	$128,000	$137	43
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+10%)	6mo	$95,000	$103	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -61.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-53,712
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.01×
• Total profit: $-97,652
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $101,500 ($113/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 819
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,738/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$500
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $41,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-432	-5% $-472	+0% $-513	+5% $-553	+10% $-593
Rent	-10% $-591	-5% $-552	+0% $-513	+5% $-473	+10% $-434
Rate	-1.0pp $-454	-0.5pp $-483	base $-513	+0.5pp $-543	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $83,000 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $83,000 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $83,000 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $83,000 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $83,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $83,000 Active 290 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $83,000 Active 289 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $83,000 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $83,000 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $83,000 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $83,000 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $83,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $83,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $83,000 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $83,000 Active 277 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $83,000 Active 275 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $83,000 Active 274 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $83,000 Active 273 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $83,000 Active 272 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $83,000 Active 271 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $83,000 Active 270 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $83,000 Active 269 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $83,000 Active 268 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $83,000 Active 267 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $83,000 Active 266 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $83,000 Active 265 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $83,000 Active 264 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $83,000 Active 263 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 262 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 261 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 260 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $83,000 Active 259 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $83,000 Active 258 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $83,000 Active 257 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $83,000 Active 256 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $83,000 Active 253 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $83,000 Active 251 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $83,000 Active 250 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $83,000 Active 247 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $83,000 Active 246 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $83,000 Active 245 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $83,000 Active 244 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $83,000 Active 242 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $83,000 Active 241 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $83,000 Active 239 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $83,000 Active 238 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $83,000 Active 237 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $83,000 Active 236 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $83,000 Active 233 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,738
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable loss: −$8,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,949
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This is a brand new manufactured home with no visible signs of wear or damage, making it move-in ready.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cerbat Elementary F AZ #963/1,109 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Kingman Middle School F AZ #180/218 Nat'l #13,186/14,009 High Kingman High School F AZ #364/381 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 209,184 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Listed $83,000 Zillow