4130 Sheep Mountain Rd

Macdoel, CA 96058

$99,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 74,923 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Pending · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $509/mo
• Annual: $6,107/yr
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.92%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $27,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,455 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Butte Valley Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,088 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.