4130 Sheep Mountain Rd · Macdoel, CA 96058

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 74,923 sqft · Manufactured · 212 Days on market

Built 1981 1.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.72 acre Horse Property, 2 stall barn, tack room, chicken room, fenced & Cross fenced areas. Garage, workshop, sheds & well house. House is 1981 triple wide. Needs to be completely redone. Driveway is graveled. Most of grass is Timothy Hay or Prairie grass. Home has a large wood stove in Livingroom. Water heater is propane. Third piece of home 32x12is a kitchen and dining area with built in desk. There are currently 2 ovens, a separate cooktop & refrigerator in home. Older smaller kitchen could be turned into an office or 4th bedroom, or other possibility. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with double vanity, separate shower & Large soaker tub. Great property for horses or other farm animals. Wiring in well house has been redone. Condition of back ramp and deck is unknown and not recommended to walk on it. Owner who inherited property does not know if home has a 433 foundation. FNR CA Lic#02089358 CA Lic 02066457 CA Lic 02145244

Key facts

• 2 stall barn
• Cross fenced areas
• Tack room

Tags

• 2 STALL BARN
• TACK ROOM
• CHICKEN ROOM
• FENCED AREAS
• CROSS FENCED AREAS
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 32/100 on livability (#1,455 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Butte Valley Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,088 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.92%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $23,472
• Equity at exit: $22,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $68,749
• Equity at exit: $22,348

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96058

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $687/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-17
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   1.72 acre Horse Property, 2 stall barn, tack room, chicken room, fenced & Cross fenced areas. Garage, workshop, sheds & well house. House is 1981 triple wide. Needs to be completely redone. Driveway is graveled. Most of grass is Timothy Hay or Prairie grass. Home has a large wood stove in Livingroom. Water heater is propane. Third piece of home 32x12is a kitchen and dining area with built in desk. There are currently 2 ovens, a separate cooktop & refrigerator in home. Older smaller kitchen could be turned into an office or 4th bedroom, or other possibility. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with double vanity, separate shower & Large soaker tub. Great property for horses or other farm animals. Wiring in well house has been redone. Condition of back ramp and deck is unknown and not recommended to walk on it. Owner who inherited property does not know if home has a 433 foundation. FNR CA Lic#02089358 CA Lic 02066457 CA Lic 02145244

2. 2026-04-17
   soldstatus $48,000

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   1.72 acre Horse Property, 2 stall barn, tack room, chicken room, fenced & Cross fenced areas. Garage, workshop, sheds & well house. House is 1981 triple wide. Needs to be completely redone. Driveway is graveled. Most of grass is Timothy Hay or Prairie grass. Home has a large wood stove in Livingroom. Water heater is propane. Third piece of home 32x12is a kitchen and dining area with built in desk. There are currently 2 ovens, a separate cooktop & refrigerator in home. Older smaller kitchen could be turned into an office or 4th bedroom, or other possibility. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with double vanity, separate shower & Large soaker tub. Great property for horses or other farm animals. Wiring in well house has been redone. Condition of back ramp and deck is unknown and not recommended to walk on it. Owner who inherited property does not know if home has a 433 foundation. FNR CA Lic#02089358 CA Lic 02066457 CA Lic 02145244

3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   1.72 acre Horse Property, 2 stall barn, tack room, chicken room, fenced & Cross fenced areas. Garage, workshop, sheds & well house. House is 1981 triple wide. Needs to be completely redone. Driveway is graveled. Most of grass is Timothy Hay or Prairie grass. Home has a large wood stove in Livingroom. Water heater is propane. Third piece of home 32x12is a kitchen and dining area with built in desk. There are currently 2 ovens, a separate cooktop & refrigerator in home. Older smaller kitchen could be turned into an office or 4th bedroom, or other possibility. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with double vanity, separate shower & Large soaker tub. Great property for horses or other farm animals. Wiring in well house has been redone. Condition of back ramp and deck is unknown and not recommended to walk on it. Owner who inherited property does not know if home has a 433 foundation. FNR CA Lic#02089358 CA Lic 02066457 CA Lic 02145244

4. 2026-02-22
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-30
   price $99,500
6. 2026-01-29
   price $94,500
7. 2026-01-14
   listed $99,500 Active 972-char remark

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   1.72 acre Horse Property, 2 stall barn, tack room, chicken room, fenced & Cross fenced areas. Garage, workshop, sheds & well house. House is 1981 triple wide. Needs to be completely redone. Driveway is graveled. Most of grass is Timothy Hay or Prairie grass. Home has a large wood stove in Livingroom. Water heater is propane. Third piece of home 32x12is a kitchen and dining area with built in desk. There are currently 2 ovens, a separate cooktop & refrigerator in home. Older smaller kitchen could be turned into an office or 4th bedroom, or other possibility. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with double vanity, separate shower & Large soaker tub. Great property for horses or other farm animals. Wiring in well house has been redone. Condition of back ramp and deck is unknown and not recommended to walk on it. Owner who inherited property does not know if home has a 433 foundation. FNR CA Lic#02089358 CA Lic 02066457 CA Lic 02145244

8. 2026-01-14
   price $99,500

   Show marketing remark (972 chars)

   1.72 acre Horse Property, 2 stall barn, tack room, chicken room, fenced & Cross fenced areas. Garage, workshop, sheds & well house. House is 1981 triple wide. Needs to be completely redone. Driveway is graveled. Most of grass is Timothy Hay or Prairie grass. Home has a large wood stove in Livingroom. Water heater is propane. Third piece of home 32x12is a kitchen and dining area with built in desk. There are currently 2 ovens, a separate cooktop & refrigerator in home. Older smaller kitchen could be turned into an office or 4th bedroom, or other possibility. Primary bedroom has a large bathroom with double vanity, separate shower & Large soaker tub. Great property for horses or other farm animals. Wiring in well house has been redone. Condition of back ramp and deck is unknown and not recommended to walk on it. Owner who inherited property does not know if home has a 433 foundation. FNR CA Lic#02089358 CA Lic 02066457 CA Lic 02145244

9. 2025-11-06
   price $104,500
10. 2025-09-18
    price $110,000
11. 2025-07-24
    listed $125,000 Active
12. 2024-06-04
    historical
13. 2024-04-03
    price $180,000
14. 2024-04-03
    price $180,000
15. 2023-10-12
    listed $200,000 Active
16. 1990-09-24
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $687 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$687
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $4,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $4,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butte Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606580
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,503
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #12410
• State rank: #1088 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Macdoel

• Score: 32/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #27824

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 706

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 39% White 23% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.32%
• Current HPI: 163.2764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+380.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-17 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-24 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-02-22 Pending — SMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $99,500 SMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $94,500 SMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $99,500 MLSCO
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $99,500 SMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $104,500 SMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $110,000 SMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $125,000 SMLS
• 2024-06-04 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $180,000 MLSCO
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $180,000 SMLS
• 2023-10-12 Listed $200,000 MLSCO
• 1990-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $687 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.