3 School House Ln

Lake Success, NY 11020

$2,450,000D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,291 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,848
• Tax + insurance: −$3,533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $-8,481/mo
• Annual: $-101,768/yr
• Cap rate: 2.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.84%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $686,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-102k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $952k (61.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.00M (59.2% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $952k (61.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $177k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#124 in NY, #2,004 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeville Elementary School (math 94% / reading 94%, grade A+, #16 of 2,108 statewide, top 1%, 762 students, 19% FRL); Great Neck South Middle School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 861 students, 23% FRL); Great Neck South High School (math 100% / reading 92%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,262 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $345k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.62M; list at $2.45M implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$283k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.