3 School House Ln · Lake Success, NY 11020

$2,450,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1946 0.32 ac lot $571/sqft · 18% below area Est $2971k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +2.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover elegance and modern living at 3 School House Lane, a distinguished residence in the Village of Lake Success in Great Neck. This beautifully crafted expanded ranch, which sits on an expansive lot of 13,852 sq ft, offers an exquisite blend of sophistication and comfort. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by the warm embrace of hardwood floors that flow seamlessly throughout the living spaces. The eat-in kitchen stands as the heart of the home and opens to the double height great room making it perfect for culinary endeavors and entertaining guests. The home features five spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious first floor primary suite. Homeowners have access to Lake Success golf club, fitness center, and pool. Great Neck South Middle and High schools. This residence is not just a home, but a lifestyle choice, designed to provide the utmost in luxury and convenience. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying a peaceful evening, 3 School House Lane promises an unparalleled living experience in a sought-after location.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Eat-in kitchen
• Pool

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DOUBLE HEIGHT GREAT ROOM
• FITNESS CENTER
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-102k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $952k (61.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.00M (59.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $952k (61.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#124 in NY, #2,004 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeville Elementary School (math 94% / reading 94%, grade A+, #16 of 2,108 statewide, top 1%, 762 students, 19% FRL); Great Neck South Middle School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 861 students, 23% FRL); Great Neck South High School (math 100% / reading 92%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,262 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $177k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$283k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $345k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.62M; list at $2.45M implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $951,848 (61.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.84%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 20.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,970,825
• List price: $2,450,000
• Delta: -17.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Fieldstone Ln	0.22mi	5/4.0	4,172 (-3%)	11mo	$2,530,000	$606	76
3 The Cir	0.29mi	5/4.0	4,150 (-3%)	11mo	$2,600,000	$627	72
14 Old Farm Rd	0.30mi	5/3.5	4,020 (-6%)	11mo	$2,080,000	$517	65
35 Meadow Woods Rd	0.06mi	6/5.5 (+1)	4,861 (+13%)	3mo	$3,250,000	$669	62
29 Pine Hill Rd	0.40mi	5/6.5	3,850 (-10%)	4mo	$2,940,000	$764	51
2 Somerset Dr	0.46mi	5/4.5	4,463 (+4%)	23mo	$2,500,000	$560	51
48 Wensley Dr	0.72mi	5/4.0	4,226 (-2%)	18mo	$2,060,000	$487	49
4 Grenfell Dr	0.65mi	6/4.5 (+1)	4,870 (+14%)	8mo	$2,750,000	$565	33
51-11 Browvale Ln	0.74mi	5/4.5	3,750 (-13%)	12mo	$1,650,000	$440	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $242,994
• Equity at exit: $1,620,970

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $1,119,620
• Equity at exit: $3,011,951

Cash invested: $686,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11020

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,848
• Tax from tax record: −$2,512 /mo · $30,142/yr
• Insurance: −$1,021
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $-8,481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,735

Max offer price $951,848

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7,094	-5% $-7,787	+0% $-8,481	+5% $-9,174	+10% $-9,868
Rent	-10% $-9,271	-5% $-8,876	+0% $-8,481	+5% $-8,086	+10% $-7,691
Rate	-1.0pp $-7,247	-0.5pp $-7,858	base $-8,481	+0.5pp $-9,116	+1.0pp $-9,761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $612,500
• Closing costs: $73,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Olive St Great Neck, NY	4.0	3.0	3390	$10,000	$2.95	0d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1046-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

   Discover elegance and modern living at 3 School House Lane, a distinguished residence in the Village of Lake Success in Great Neck. This beautifully crafted expanded ranch, which sits on an expansive lot of 13,852 sq ft, offers an exquisite blend of sophistication and comfort. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by the warm embrace of hardwood floors that flow seamlessly throughout the living spaces. The eat-in kitchen stands as the heart of the home and opens to the double height great room making it perfect for culinary endeavors and entertaining guests. The home features five spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious first floor primary suite. Homeowners have access to Lake Success golf club, fitness center, and pool. Great Neck South Middle and High schools. This residence is not just a home, but a lifestyle choice, designed to provide the utmost in luxury and convenience. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying a peaceful evening, 3 School House Lane promises an unparalleled living experience in a sought-after location.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $2,450,000 1046-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

   Discover elegance and modern living at 3 School House Lane, a distinguished residence in the Village of Lake Success in Great Neck. This beautifully crafted expanded ranch, which sits on an expansive lot of 13,852 sq ft, offers an exquisite blend of sophistication and comfort. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by the warm embrace of hardwood floors that flow seamlessly throughout the living spaces. The eat-in kitchen stands as the heart of the home and opens to the double height great room making it perfect for culinary endeavors and entertaining guests. The home features five spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious first floor primary suite. Homeowners have access to Lake Success golf club, fitness center, and pool. Great Neck South Middle and High schools. This residence is not just a home, but a lifestyle choice, designed to provide the utmost in luxury and convenience. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying a peaceful evening, 3 School House Lane promises an unparalleled living experience in a sought-after location.

3. 2026-02-26
   price $2,588,000 1046-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

   Discover elegance and modern living at 3 School House Lane, a distinguished residence in the Village of Lake Success in Great Neck. This beautifully crafted expanded ranch, which sits on an expansive lot of 13,852 sq ft, offers an exquisite blend of sophistication and comfort. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by the warm embrace of hardwood floors that flow seamlessly throughout the living spaces. The eat-in kitchen stands as the heart of the home and opens to the double height great room making it perfect for culinary endeavors and entertaining guests. The home features five spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious first floor primary suite. Homeowners have access to Lake Success golf club, fitness center, and pool. Great Neck South Middle and High schools. This residence is not just a home, but a lifestyle choice, designed to provide the utmost in luxury and convenience. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying a peaceful evening, 3 School House Lane promises an unparalleled living experience in a sought-after location.

4. 2026-01-20
   listed $2,795,000 Active 1046-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

   Discover elegance and modern living at 3 School House Lane, a distinguished residence in the Village of Lake Success in Great Neck. This beautifully crafted expanded ranch, which sits on an expansive lot of 13,852 sq ft, offers an exquisite blend of sophistication and comfort. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by the warm embrace of hardwood floors that flow seamlessly throughout the living spaces. The eat-in kitchen stands as the heart of the home and opens to the double height great room making it perfect for culinary endeavors and entertaining guests. The home features five spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious first floor primary suite. Homeowners have access to Lake Success golf club, fitness center, and pool. Great Neck South Middle and High schools. This residence is not just a home, but a lifestyle choice, designed to provide the utmost in luxury and convenience. Whether you're hosting gatherings or enjoying a peaceful evening, 3 School House Lane promises an unparalleled living experience in a sought-after location.

5. 2025-10-13
   price $2,795,000
6. 2025-09-05
   listed $2,999,000 Active
7. 2014-03-03
   soldstatus $1,625,000
8. 2014-02-03
   soldstatus $1,625,000 Closed
9. 2014-02-03
   soldstatus $1,625,000
10. 2013-11-20
    status Under Contract
11. 2013-09-03
    listed $1,788,000 New
12. 2013-09-03
    listed $1,788,000
13. 2013-08-26
    historical
14. 2012-09-17
    listed $1,788,000
15. 2011-08-25
    soldstatus $1,650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $30,142 · $2,512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $35,773 · $2,981/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,632/yr (+$469/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $120,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$137,238
• − Property taxes: −$30,142
• − Insurance: −$12,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,600
• − Management: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$71,273
• Taxable loss: −$150,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-65,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Neck Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3612510
• Math proficiency: 86% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $99,939
• Composite: 76.19/100
• National rank: #111
• State rank: #30 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Success

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #2004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Success, NY
• City population: 6,218
• Population (ZIP): 5,986

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% White 38% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Chinese 24% Korean 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Current HPI: 320.5214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+48.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $2,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $2,588,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Listed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listed $2,999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,625,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-03 Sold (MLS) $1,625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-03 Sold (MLS) $1,625,000 MLSLI
• 2013-11-20 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-09-03 Listed $1,788,000 MLSLI
• 2013-09-03 Listed $1,788,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-17 Listed $1,788,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $1,650,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $30,142 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.