553 Potter Hill Rd

Bolton Landing, NY 12814

$709,900A

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,723
• Tax + insurance: −$561
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $3,616/mo
• Annual: $43,393/yr
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.83%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $198,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $710k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $710k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $689k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $71k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,015 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $199k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 0.4% in Bolton Landing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.