553 Potter Hill Rd · Bolton Landing, NY 12814

$709,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2000 2.60 ac lot $470/sqft · 42% above area Est $857k · 17% under ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The smart money has finally figured out that you don't have to be on the water to enjoy all that Bolton Landing and Lake George has to offer. Play on the lake during the day and go to your private retreat in the evenings. There is 93' of waterfront on Finkle Brook. You can hop in to cool off or do some fly fishing. Very flexible floor plan, offering up to 5 bedrooms. Basement is at grade, rough plumbed for a full bathroom and easily finished off to add another 1,500 sf. to give you over 4,000 of living area if so desired. Lots of building materials on site to finish off the basement. Home is set far enough from all the noise on the lake, but still an easy walk or bike ride to the beaches

Key facts

• 2.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener; Stone parking/driveway surfaces
• Utilities: Underground electric with circuit breakers; Underground utilities; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Main road frontage approximately 262 feet
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Living area approximately 2,600
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Private, wooded lot; On a lot with a creek

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Propane fuel
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Built-in features; Ceramic tile bath; Chair rail; Crown molding; French doors; Skylights; Wood window frames; Double-pane windows; 10 total rooms; Full, heated basement with exterior entry and bath stubbed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer/Dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $710k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $710k).
• Recommended offer: $689k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 0.4% in Bolton Landing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,015 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $71k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $199k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $688,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.83%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $857,324
• List price: $709,900
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $616,711
• Equity at exit: $639,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.22×
• Total profit: $1,634,537
• Equity at exit: $1,379,180

Cash invested: $198,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12814

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,723
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,184/yr
• Insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $3,616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,423

Max offer price $709,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,018	-5% $3,817	+0% $3,616	+5% $3,415	+10% $3,214
Rent	-10% $2,826	-5% $3,221	+0% $3,616	+5% $4,011	+10% $4,406
Rate	-1.0pp $3,974	-0.5pp $3,797	base $3,616	+0.5pp $3,432	+1.0pp $3,245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $177,475
• Closing costs: $21,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Sunrise Ln Lake George, NY	3.0	2.0	1344	$10,000	$7.44	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $709,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $709,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $709,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $709,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $709,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $709,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $709,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $709,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $729,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $729,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $729,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $729,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $729,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $729,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $729,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    price $729,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $769,900
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $769,900 Active 862-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    historical
20. 2026-04-27
    price $779,900
21. 2026-04-21
    price $789,900
22. 2026-04-02
    price $799,900
23. 2025-12-26
    price $839,900
24. 2025-10-30
    listed $879,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,590 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,407/yr (+$367/mo · 138.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $120,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,184
• − Insurance: −$3,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,600
• − Management: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$20,652
• Taxable income: $33,650
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,076
• After-tax cash flow: $35,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605010
• Math proficiency: 75% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,568
• Composite: 67.0/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #110 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bolton Landing

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1015
• US rank: #19844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime D+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,145

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.75%
• Current HPI: 550.304
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-19.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $709,900 Global MLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $729,900 Global MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $769,900 Global MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $769,900 Global MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $779,900 Global MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $789,900 Global MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $799,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $839,900 Global MLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $879,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,184 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.