12802 Carousel Ct

Marlton, MD 20772

$398,888F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · Built 1991 · Townhouse · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$614
• HOA: −$183
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-517/mo
• Annual: $-6,203/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $111,689

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#224 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marlton Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 309 students, 62% FRL); James Madison Middle (math 4% / reading 27%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 873 students, 62% FRL); Frederick Douglass High (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #157 of 222 statewide, top 71%, 1,159 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.