2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,665 sqft ·
Built 2004
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,129/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,725
Tax + insurance
−$589
HOA
−$370
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$657
Net cashflow
$-212/mo
Annual
$-2,548/yr
Cap rate
5.52%
Cash-on-cash
-2.77%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$92,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $329k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (11.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (4.9% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $291k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $219k; list at $329k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8XXPXPC5PJQEPH
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29