9443 1st St

Lumberton, TX 77657

$129,889B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 380 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $624/mo
• Annual: $7,483/yr
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.58%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $36,369

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lumberton Pri (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 982 students, 43% FRL); Lumberton Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 969 students, 35% FRL); Lumberton H S (math 55% / reading 61%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,229 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.