9443 1st St · Lumberton, TX 77657

$129,889

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 380 Days on market

Built 2002 $83/sqft · 14% below area Est $152k · 14% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE LOT IN THE PINEY WOODS AREA! This mobile home property at 9443 1st St in Lumberton, TX, offers peaceful living in a friendly community surrounded by the natural beauty of the Piney Woods. Close to Beaumont for city amenities like shopping and dining, it's ideal for families or anyone seeking a blend of country charm and urban convenience. With great schools, parks, and outdoor activities, it provides a lifestyle focused on community and nature. This property is perfect for those wanting to enjoy serene living with the benefits of city access in Southeast Texas sitting on over a third of an acre. This home is being sold AS IS, but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Piney woods area
• Large lot
• City amenities

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• PINEY WOODS AREA
• CITY AMENITIES
• GREAT SCHOOLS
• PARKS
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lumberton Pri (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 982 students, 43% FRL); Lumberton Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 969 students, 35% FRL); Lumberton H S (math 55% / reading 61%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,229 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,302 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.58%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,630
• List price: $129,889
• Delta: -14.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $18,647
• Equity at exit: $19,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $67,285
• Equity at exit: $11,230

Cash invested: $36,369 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $129,889

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $697	-5% $660	+0% $624	+5% $587	+10% $550
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $552	+0% $624	+5% $696	+10% $767
Rate	-1.0pp $689	-0.5pp $657	base $624	+0.5pp $590	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,472
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	25d	1	0.11mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.11mi
8445 Harvard St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,790	$1.38	25d	1	0.49mi
9006 Duke St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,400	$1.32	45d	1	0.52mi
110 Azaelia Dr Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	15d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,889 Active 380 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,889 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,889 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,889 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,889 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,889 Active 372 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,889 Active 369 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,889 Active 368 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,889 Active 367 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,889 Active 366 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,889 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,889 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,889 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,889 Active 360 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,889 Active 359 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,889 Active 358 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    price $129,889 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    LARGE LOT IN THE PINEY WOODS AREA! This mobile home property at 9443 1st St in Lumberton, TX, offers peaceful living in a friendly community surrounded by the natural beauty of the Piney Woods. Close to Beaumont for city amenities like shopping and dining, it's ideal for families or anyone seeking a blend of country charm and urban convenience. With great schools, parks, and outdoor activities, it provides a lifestyle focused on community and nature. This property is perfect for those wanting to enjoy serene living with the benefits of city access in Southeast Texas sitting on over a third of an acre. This home is being sold AS IS, but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2026-02-19
    price $129,899 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    LARGE LOT IN THE PINEY WOODS AREA! This mobile home property at 9443 1st St in Lumberton, TX, offers peaceful living in a friendly community surrounded by the natural beauty of the Piney Woods. Close to Beaumont for city amenities like shopping and dining, it's ideal for families or anyone seeking a blend of country charm and urban convenience. With great schools, parks, and outdoor activities, it provides a lifestyle focused on community and nature. This property is perfect for those wanting to enjoy serene living with the benefits of city access in Southeast Texas sitting on over a third of an acre. This home is being sold AS IS, but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2025-06-06
    listed $132,899 Active 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    LARGE LOT IN THE PINEY WOODS AREA! This mobile home property at 9443 1st St in Lumberton, TX, offers peaceful living in a friendly community surrounded by the natural beauty of the Piney Woods. Close to Beaumont for city amenities like shopping and dining, it's ideal for families or anyone seeking a blend of country charm and urban convenience. With great schools, parks, and outdoor activities, it provides a lifestyle focused on community and nature. This property is perfect for those wanting to enjoy serene living with the benefits of city access in Southeast Texas sitting on over a third of an acre. This home is being sold AS IS, but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,426/yr (+$119/mo · 150.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $5,695
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $6,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $129,889 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $129,899 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $132,899 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.