17 Lochwood Hill Dr

North Shore, VA 24556

$424,950F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,131 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-1,351/mo
• Annual: $-16,216/yr
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.63%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $118,986

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (52.3% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (52.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#475 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New London Academy Elementary (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 333 students, 28% FRL); Forest Middle (math 71% / reading 85%, grade A+, #34 of 342 statewide, top 10%, 870 students, 22% FRL); Jefferson Forest High (math 59% / reading 81%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,309 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 0.5% in North Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.