17 Lochwood Hill Dr · North Shore, VA 24556

$424,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,131 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

0.71 ac lot $199/sqft · 53% below area $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lochwood is in the desirable Jefferson Forest school district. The community offers brand new living with beautiful scenic views less than 15 miles to Liberty University. This home includes 9ft ceilings and luxury plank flooring throughout the main living area, upgraded white cabinets with brushed nickel hardware and quartz countertops in the kitchen, and solid surface flooring, white cabinets and solid surface countertops in the bathrooms. The Williamsburg has an open floor plan and kitchen island, perfect for family gatherings. Upstairs you will find a spacious walk-in closet in the master suite. We invite you to LiveNew'' at Lochwood, a premier Lynchburg community.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $180 (about $15/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Paved parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Laundry located on upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Electric water heater; Carpet flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (52.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (52.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 0.5% in North Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#475 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New London Academy Elementary (math 74% / reading 74%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 333 students, 28% FRL); Forest Middle (math 71% / reading 85%, grade A+, #34 of 342 statewide, top 10%, 870 students, 22% FRL); Jefferson Forest High (math 59% / reading 81%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,309 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,584 (52.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.63%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $898,196
• List price: $424,950
• Delta: -52.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Sherwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-5%)	20mo	$867,500	$430	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $145,412
• Equity at exit: $382,829

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $495,977
• Equity at exit: $825,584

Cash invested: $118,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24556

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,374/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-1,351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,736

Max offer price $229,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,058	-5% $-1,204	+0% $-1,351	+5% $-1,498	+10% $-1,645
Rent	-10% $-1,511	-5% $-1,431	+0% $-1,351	+5% $-1,271	+10% $-1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,137	-0.5pp $-1,243	base $-1,351	+0.5pp $-1,461	+1.0pp $-1,573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,238
• Closing costs: $12,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $424,950 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,950 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,950 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $424,950 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,950 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $424,950 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,950 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $424,950 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $424,950 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $424,950 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $424,950 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,950 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,950 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,950 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $424,950 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $424,950 676-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $414,950 Active 676-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,804
• − Property taxes: −$6,374
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$12,362
• Taxable loss: −$24,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — North Shore

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #20624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,695

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.28%
• Current HPI: 326.0488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $424,950 LMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $414,950 LMLS