473 W Vine St

Canton, IL 61520

$57,600C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Built 1931 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$124
• Net cashflow: $84/mo
• Annual: $1,013/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $16,128

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($590 rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#318 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Canton Union SD 66 (town): math 19% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #417 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 14 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.