181 Polk St

Thayer, MO 65791

$35,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $762/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $394/mo
• Annual: $4,733/yr
• Cap rate: 19.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.30%
• DSCR: 3.15
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($762 rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#530 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Thayer R-II (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #42 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.1% in Thayer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.