181 Polk St · Thayer, MO 65791

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Other public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1940 0.34 ac lot $66/sqft · 14% below area Est $41k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project or investment opportunity? This one bedroom, one bath might be it. Conveniently located, nice sized yard, and lots of potential.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($762 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.1% in Thayer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#530 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Thayer R-II (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #42 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.30%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,562
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -13.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $19,439
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $49,234
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65791

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $109/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $35,000 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Looking for a project or investment opportunity? This one bedroom, one bath might be it. Conveniently located, nice sized yard, and lots of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $109 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 211.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$109
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$731
• − Management: −$731
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $4,414
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $3,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thayer R-II
• NCES district ID: 2930270
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $31,092
• Composite: 42.22/100
• National rank: #3284
• State rank: #42 of 324 in MO

Livability — Thayer

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #19863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thayer, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,172

Population outlook (Oregon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,607 people
• By 2030: 10,352 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 9,829 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 9,286 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 8,392 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 7,136 · -32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Oregon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.3pp · 2024: -69.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.1 2020: R+63.8 2016: R+60.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.09%
• Current HPI: 196.3094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $35,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $109 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.