16 bd · 16.0 ba ·
1,792 sqft ·
Built 2000
· MultiFamily
· Under Contract
· 189 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,063/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$643
Net cashflow
$1,279/mo
Annual
$15,354/yr
Cap rate
15.60%
Cash-on-cash
33.23%
DSCR
2.48
1% rule
1.86%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 4 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $320/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Corning School District (town): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #123 of 238 in AR (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Corning High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 228 students, 71% FRL).
Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.0% in Corning — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29