1294 Windcrest Cir

Arnold, MO 63010

$320,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Built 2005 · MultiFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,597/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-258/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-258/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fox Elem. (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 380 students, 40% FRL); Fox Sr. High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,742 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.