1294 Windcrest Cir · Arnold, MO 63010

$320,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2005 6,969 sqft lot $140/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

This beautiful 2-bedroom, 2-bath villa has been meticulously maintained over the years and offers comfort, convenience, and charm in one of the area’s most desirable communities. Enjoy a new roof, main-floor laundry, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open living/dining area flows into a bright kitchen with a breakfast nook that leads to a private deck and the largest yard in the neighborhood—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet and shower-only bath. A mostly finished lower level includes a kitchenette with wet bar, and storage adds even more flexibility. The lower level was professionally waterproofed prior to being finished for

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,489 total with 1,389 above grade and 1,100 below grade
• HOA & community: The Villas at Windcrest HOA; Monthly association fee ($140) covering grounds maintenance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance and roof; Common ground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached enclosed garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); 2-car garage; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren)
• Home design: Attached villa; One level; Attached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Below-grade finished area (basement) in addition to above-grade living space
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Panel and storm doors; Back yard; Interior lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (14 x 11); Breakfast room (8 x 11); Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom includes a full bath with shower only and a 5x12 walk-in closet; Second bedroom on main level (12 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); One bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Partially finished full basement with interior entry and 8+ ft poured walls
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-258/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fox Elem. (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #662 of 1,115 statewide, top 60%, 380 students, 40% FRL); Fox Sr. High (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,742 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,700 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-53,268
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-48,333
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63010

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 20.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,460/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $316,204

Occupancy floor 96%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$2,598
Total (2 units)			$2,597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2386 Ridgecrest Dr Unit 6- 2386 Ridgecrest Arnold, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	12d	1	0.15mi
2365 Ida Ln Unit 2365 Arnold, MO	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,695	$1.54	2d	1	0.20mi
340 Oak Ridge Pkwy Arnold, MO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	20d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $320,000 Active
3. 2026-03-26
   historical $320,000
4. 2025-10-17
   listed $320,000 Active
5. 2025-10-10
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,104 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,644/yr (+$137/mo · 112.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,460
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$5,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $1,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnold, MO
• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• City population: 34,478
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,478
• Household income: $79,784
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% American 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.53%
• Current HPI: 190.586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $320,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $320,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listed $320,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,460 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.