29135 Hook Crk

Lake Arrowhead, CA 92321

$315,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,033/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-252/mo
• Annual: $-3,019/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (35.5% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lake Arrowhead Elementary (421 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.