29135 Hook Crk · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92321

$315,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1930 2,967 sqft lot $386/sqft · at area comps Est $329k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Location Location! OWNER WILL CARRY WITH A SIZABLE DOWN PAYMENT. Lots of traffic exposure with so much potential. Multi purpose use. Huge open office/ meeting area for large crowds with 1 & 1/2 bathroom. there is a front entrance with handicap access. This is a two story building with one private room that could be used for overnight sleeping, message room, Dr. office/ studio and more. Newer windows, new heater. There is a private stairway & private entry on the north side of the building for upstairs access to the upstairs kitchenet ect. The kitchenet is large enough for a break room and then some. A huge large one car garage/storage can be used for office supplies, large equi

Key facts

• Upstairs kitchenet
• Private stairway
• One private room

Tags

• PRIVATE STAIRWAY
• UPSTAIRS KITCHENET
• HUGE OPEN OFFICE MEETING AREA
• ONE PRIVATE ROOM
• LARGE ONE CAR GARAGE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 1 unit on the parcel
• Financial info: Sewer assessments noted

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Two-story property; Entry on main level; Mountainous community setting; Located in Cedar Glen
• Construction: Year built reported by assessor; No common walls
• Exterior features: Mixed-use structure; Corner lot; 0–1 unit per acre; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms listed
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Interior features: Two levels; Main entry at main level; Bonus room; Office; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lake Arrowhead Elementary (421 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,267 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,183
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -4.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29259 Lake Brook Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0	728 (-11%)	3mo	$189,000	$260	72
29198 Lake Brook Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	725 (-11%)	22mo	$295,000	$407	59
292 Hemlock Dr	0.47mi	1/1.0 (-1)	810 (-1%)	17mo	$495,000	$611	57
29167 arrowhead Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	912 (+12%)	19mo	$325,400	$357	56
273 Oak Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	892 (+9%)	23mo	$370,000	$415	56
28810 Cedar	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	884 (+8%)	4mo	$435,000	$492	51
229 Maple Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	712 (-13%)	6mo	$465,000	$653	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $155,369
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $469,807
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92321

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,351

Max offer price $270,560

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-162	+0% $-252	+5% $-341	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-332	+0% $-252	+5% $-171	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-171	base $-252	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29184 Lake Brook Ave Cedar Glen, CA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	45d	1	0.10mi
29180 North Dr Unit 1 bedroom Cedar Glen, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	0d	1	0.77mi
209 Cool Creek Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,500	$2.47	1d	1	1.11mi
112 Rockledge Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1058	$2,190	$2.07	7d	1	1.15mi
587 Arrowhead Villa Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,350	$2.72	45d	1	1.20mi
28101 Lakes Edge Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,600	$2.35	26d	1	1.31mi
545 W Victoria Ct Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,000	$2.33	26d	1	1.36mi
28380 Larchmont Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	20d	1	1.45mi
28393 Larchmont Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,200	$1.99	45d	1	1.46mi
701 Pinnacle Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,995	$1.86	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $315,000 901-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $325,000 Active 901-char remark
18. 2025-09-19
    historical
19. 2025-05-31
    listed $299,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,394 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,503/yr (+$125/mo · 168.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥85°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $-910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• City population: 6,246
• Population (ZIP): 828

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.53%
• Current HPI: 510.4737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listed $299,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.