473 County Highway 48

Otego, NY 13820

$229,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-278/mo
• Annual: $-3,331/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (32.6% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#762 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, schools B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Otego-Unadilla Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #547 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.