473 County Highway 48 · Otego, NY 13820

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1993 6.81 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living on the river! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch home sits above the Susquehanna river on 6.81 total acres, this unique property features 2 separate lots. River side has the current home and just above an area where there had been another mobile home and currently has 2 sheds, electric, a shared well, driveway and an area where you could add another home or a camper. On the other side of the road is the 2nd lot with a shed and if desired - areas to build. Step through the front entrance of the home and walk into the laundry/mud room and then into the dining room. To the right is the primary suite with full bath, walk in closet and views of the river. To the left of the entranc

Key facts

• River side
• Area for gardening
• Tranquil views

Tags

• RIVER SIDE
• SEPARATE LOTS
• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS
• WATER-FACING BACK DECK
• AREA FOR GARDENING
• TRANQUIL VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Existing/resale property; Frontage along the Susquehanna River (657 ft)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation and slab; Built as existing (year built details: existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open deck; Porch; Shed(s) / storage; Propane tank (leased); River access and stream frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Total of 9 rooms (includes living areas and laundry)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#762 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, schools B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Otego-Unadilla Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #547 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,241 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $107,010
• Equity at exit: $206,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $328,971
• Equity at exit: $444,897

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13820

• Home prices YoY: 22.7%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,600/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,894

Max offer price $179,965

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
289 Main St Unit 1 Otego, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $229,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,735 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,135/yr (+$95/mo · 71.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,600
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$7,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Otego-Unadilla Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,590
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5896
• State rank: #547 of 590 in NY

Livability — Otego

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #762
• US rank: #14617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Otsego County · 23,056 people
• Metro: Oneonta, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,056
• Household income: $65,953
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.86%
• Current HPI: 366.3391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oneonta, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $229,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,600 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.