4138 River Rd

Wichita Falls, TX 76305

$125,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,933/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $517/mo
• Annual: $6,208/yr
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.03%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Burkburnett ISD (town): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #529 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Overton Ray El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 527 students, 56% FRL); Burkburnett Middle (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 736 students, 53% FRL); Burkburnett H S (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 834 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.