4138 River Rd · Wichita Falls, TX 76305

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2000 4.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bath home in the country with 5.03 acres! Two living areas, double pane windows, nursery/office connected to master bedroom. Small shed in back.

Key facts

• Private office
• Separate shower
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• OVERSIZED WALK-THROUGH CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• FENCED SECTION FOR HORSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Burkburnett ISD (town): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #529 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.03%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,812
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $54,064
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76305

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,119/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $553	+0% $517	+5% $482	+10% $447
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $441	+0% $517	+5% $594	+10% $670
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $549	base $517	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $125,000 Active 511-char remark
10. 2026-03-12
    price $125,000
11. 2017-08-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home in the country with 5.03 acres! Two living areas, double pane windows, nursery/office connected to master bedroom. Small shed in back.

12. 2017-06-27
    listed $45,000

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home in the country with 5.03 acres! Two living areas, double pane windows, nursery/office connected to master bedroom. Small shed in back.

13. 2007-06-12
    soldstatus
14. 2007-06-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,119 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$168/yr (+$14/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,119
• − Insurance: −$2,128
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $5,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkburnett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812120
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,346
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6519
• State rank: #529 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 95,694
• Population (ZIP): 4,929

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.16%
• Current HPI: 216.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $125,000 WFAOR
• 2017-08-28 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2017-06-27 Listed $45,000 WFAOR
• 2007-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,119 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.