121 Sapling Dew Dr

Georgetown, TX 78628

$303,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,147/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-342/mo
• Annual: $-4,107/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $85,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $304k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (29.4% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.