121 Sapling Dew Dr · Georgetown, TX 78628

$303,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 $120/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Marion - This single-story home is great for growing families. There are two bedrooms that share a full bathroom in between them at the front of the home, while an open concept layout includes a modern kitchen, family room and dining area with a back patio. The owner’s suite is in the back of the home for maximum privacy. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 5,488 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,694 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-77,358
• Equity at exit: $45,327

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-119,771
• Equity at exit: $26,284

Cash invested: $85,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78628

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $243,537

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,000
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1066 Bowline Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,000	$1.10	44d	1	0.50mi
4906 Madrid Dr Unit T2 Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,900	$1.15	16d	1	0.57mi
109 Greenside Ln Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,285	$1.29	17d	1	0.64mi
403 Rosedale Blvd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,125	$1.30	24d	1	0.72mi
167 Whispering Wind Dr Georgetown, TX	2.0	2.0	1442	$1,995	$1.38	44d	1	0.82mi
103 Rain Lily Ln Georgetown, TX	2.0	2.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	3d	1	0.98mi
4121 Williams Dr Georgetown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,530	$1.57	12d	1	1.33mi
127 Verbena Dr Georgetown, TX	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,895	$1.42	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   The Marion - This single-story home is great for growing families. There are two bedrooms that share a full bathroom in between them at the front of the home, while an open concept layout includes a modern kitchen, family room and dining area with a back patio. The owner’s suite is in the back of the home for maximum privacy. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $303,999 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   The Marion - This single-story home is great for growing families. There are two bedrooms that share a full bathroom in between them at the front of the home, while an open concept layout includes a modern kitchen, family room and dining area with a back patio. The owner’s suite is in the back of the home for maximum privacy. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

3. 2026-04-07
   listed $319,990 Active 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   The Marion - This single-story home is great for growing families. There are two bedrooms that share a full bathroom in between them at the front of the home, while an open concept layout includes a modern kitchen, family room and dining area with a back patio. The owner’s suite is in the back of the home for maximum privacy. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,563 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,193/yr (+$266/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,029
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$8,844
• Taxable loss: −$9,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Georgetown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820600
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,461
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5897
• State rank: #474 of 826 in TX

Livability — Georgetown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #1294

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Georgetown, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 128,203
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 50,822
• Household income: $125,635
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1560.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -439.68%
• Current HPI: 192.7561
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $303,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $319,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+43.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,370 · +72.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.