1259 Tahoe Ct Ct

Lakeside, FL 32065

$258,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-892/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $72,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-892/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (25.0% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $193k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridgeview Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 588 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park Junior High School (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.