1259 Tahoe Ct Ct · Lakeside, FL 32065

$258,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1999 Est $238k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic home. Has lot of xtras - inground pool, sprinkler system w/well, glassed porch, ceramic tile, fireplace & skylights. Home needs a little TLC. Mostly cosmetic. Bring your buyers and best offers. Thanks for showing. Please leave card.

Key facts

• 250 garage spots
• Pool
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-892/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridgeview Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 588 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park Junior High School (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,477 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,510
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1261 Cutlass Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,305 (0%)	20mo	$262,150	$201	82
1295 Bear Run Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-0%)	2mo	$232,500	$178	81
1312 Rushing Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+5%)	2mo	$255,000	$186	81
3186 Bee St E	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+2%)	9mo	$185,000	$139	69
1347 Bee St W	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+5%)	3mo	$310,000	$226	61
2920 Andy Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+7%)	13mo	$285,000	$204	61
521 Opal Ave	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,272 (-2%)	6mo	$163,500	$129	60
3183 Bee St E	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+5%)	18mo	$250,000	$182	56
2933 Dakota Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+12%)	22mo	$265,000	$181	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,191
• Equity at exit: $38,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,817
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,935 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,708/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,029

Max offer price $244,870

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $-1	+0% $-74	+5% $-147	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-151	+0% $-74	+5% $2	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-9	base $-74	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1255 Tahoe Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,916	$1.47	9d	1	0.08mi
2921 Andy Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,885	$1.14	6d	1	0.34mi
25 Knight Boxx Rd Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$1,863	$1.68	4d	18	0.86mi
1281 Independence Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,695	$1.56	25d	1	0.95mi
1267 Suffolk Pl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,820	$1.51	0d	1	0.99mi
2804 Canyon Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,824	$1.33	16d	1	1.00mi
3248 Dowitcher Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	25d	1	1.03mi
3223 Merganzer Trl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,755	$1.52	25d	1	1.10mi
1270 Ticonderoga Trl Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	25d	1	1.10mi
1248 Ticonderoga Trl Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,195	$1.30	9d	1	1.12mi
1324 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	926	$1,245	$1.34	25d	1	1.12mi
1324 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,245	$1.35	4d	1	1.12mi
1330 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,250	$1.36	18d	1	1.13mi
1333 Jefferson Ave Unit D Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,325	$1.44	25d	1	1.18mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 3296 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,050	$1.20	25d	1	1.20mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	5d	1	1.20mi
3296 Isabella Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	6d	1	1.20mi
1504 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,795	$1.34	22d	1	1.20mi
2897 Gatling Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,650	$1.23	9d	1	1.24mi
2796 Kiowa Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,855	$1.46	0d	1	1.24mi
1953 Longneedle Ln Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1564	$1,965	$1.26	19d	1	1.38mi
1568 Backwater Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,895	$1.19	25d	1	1.38mi
1608 Twin Oak Dr W Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,905	$1.50	0d	1	1.40mi
3764 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,900	$1.33	5d	1	1.43mi
1338 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,905	$1.44	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   historical
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $258,000
3. 2006-03-10
   historical 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Fantastic home. Has lot of xtras - inground pool, sprinkler system w/well, glassed porch, ceramic tile, fireplace & skylights. Home needs a little TLC. Mostly cosmetic. Bring your buyers and best offers. Thanks for showing. Please leave card.

4. 2005-12-21
   listed $165,000 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Fantastic home. Has lot of xtras - inground pool, sprinkler system w/well, glassed porch, ceramic tile, fireplace & skylights. Home needs a little TLC. Mostly cosmetic. Bring your buyers and best offers. Thanks for showing. Please leave card.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$434/yr (+$36/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$1,708
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$5,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,309
• After-tax cash flow: $417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $258,000 realMLS
• 2006-03-10 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-12-21 Listed $165,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,708 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.